mr. zilla goes to town

Sunday, October 31, 2004

hope springs eternal


Today we have more state polls than there are states. There are 54 new polls in 22 states today. Furthermore, the lead has changed in five states, and all five changes favor Kerry. As a result, Kerry has now passed Bush in the electoral college. If today's results are the final results Wednesday morning, John Kerry will be elected as the 44th President of the United States, with 283 votes in the electoral college to George Bush's 246. But don't count on it. Many of Kerry's leads are razor thin. Counting only the strong + weak states, Bush leads 229 to 196, with 113 electoral votes in the tossup category Kerry's leads in the tossup states mean little to nothing. The turnout Tuesday will determine who wins.

Don't count on it, but get a load of the trend in Fox News' polls, as reported by DailyKos:

...according to Fox News, among likely voters Bush went from a 7-point lead on Oct 17/18, to five points by Oct 27/28, to two points on Oct 28/29, to tied as of today. Even with his shoes on, Fred Barnes can calculate that as a 7-point drop in two weeks. Here's a fun experiment: Try to imagine if the president had improved seven points during the past two weeks: Fox News would have a perma-graphic in the bottom-right corner of the screen, and Kristol and the Beltway Boys would be chirp, chirp, chirping!

Also of note for the impact on GOTV: this chart shows clear skies predicted for Florida, but rain in Ohio, New Hampshire, Michigan, Wisconsin and most of Pennsylvania.

Update. Via Crooked Timber who have the right approach:

In every Presidential election-year since 1936, if the Washington Redskins lost their last game before the election, the incumbent lost as well. In today’s game, the Packers beat Washington 28 - 14. A late rally by the Redskins in the 4th Quarter couldn’t save them. This is the strongest spurious evidence yet that Kerry’s going to win on Tuesday.


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