mr. zilla goes to town

Thursday, October 21, 2004

polling the punches, glancing at gizzards

Road to Surfdom has a post with few good grabs of analysis and gossip on the state of play in the big one just 12 days away.

Also worth a look is electoral-vote, which agglomerates a lot of polling and puts Kerry's nose over the line on a count of the electoral college outcome, 271-257. Similarly Professor Pollkatz puts Kerry ahead 287-251. Note well though that at least 150 electoral votes are still swinging in the breeze.

Giving a slightly different perspective is today's WSJ battleground states poll which, although many results are within the margin of error, indicates a strong swing towards Bush in the last two weeks. This is a little perplexing in light of the received wisdom that Kerry came out on top in all three three debates (the second and third held between this WSJ poll and the last).

It almost feels like time to throw the numbers in the air and do a bit of old fashioned entrail examination. (You know, the kind of gut-feel that preferably involves someone else's).

Last night the Boston Red Sox came back from 0-3 down in the series to beat the Yankees 4-3 and advance to the World Series. This is apparently the first time this has been achieved in the history of Major League Baseball by any team. You would have to say the stars are shining favourably on a man from Massachusetts this week.

But this would be premature, with team from Texas the Houston Astros going toe to toe with the St Louis Cardinals in game 7 of the National League tonight, a win putting the Bushy Texas team front and centre as well...

A win by the Astros could see a Texas vs Massachusetts World Series, one that would act like a crowd of 280 million in the bleachers screaming on Bush in the red trunks and Kerry in the blue, standing toe to toe in a ring over home plate, both bloody but still slugging in the fifteenth round...

Update: or not.




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